I told you so!!

Posted on 3/2/2008 @ 11:54 PM in #Non Techie by | Feedback | 4133 views

Okay, here is to a bit of chest thumping (Sorry, but I just had to).

But, I told you so, on two points -

1. SharePoint: I said on Dotnetrocks, and otherwise - SharePoint is a game changer. Many still choose to live in the denial phase. But did you hear?  "Office Live Workspace is built on WSS 3.0". Don't believe me? Go read this - Update to Office Live Workspace

2. Microsoft's data access story: About 2 years ago, when I first played with DLINQ (now rechristened to LINQ to SQL), I basically flat out said - This is for RAD development/prototyping - not good enough for production environments. To be very specific, I had said ...

".... where your  logical model could be sufficiently disjoint from the conceptual model. So DLINQ (now LINQ to SQL) was ideal for situations where your logical model was very close to the conceptual model. Of course, you had better chances of finding a hot bikini model who was also a C++ programmer, than to find an application where the logical and conceptual model would be the same....".

I also expressed a more comprehensive opinion not too long ago.

It's interesting to see that 2 years later, things haven't changed much.

So, going forward, here are some of my predictions -

  1. Silverlight 2.0 - will be good, but not the game changer MSFT would like you to believe it will be. There is one huge HUGE missing peice in silverlight - SEO. It just doesn't make sense to have web presence without SEO, and silverlight doesn't give you that. I just don't see silverlight taking over the game from HTML unless search engines figure out silverlight, or silverlight figured out SEO - both tough problems to solve.
  2. SharePoint vNext - Will blow your mind. Thats all for now. More later.
  3. ADO.NET eF - Will receive significant criticism, but will become the de facto way we write applications going forward.
  4. Demise of technical books - This will be preceeded with detoriating quality of content in newer books/lack of brand new technology books. With due respect to current authors, writing books is way too much work than worth the return. I have all the respect for guys who are willing to write a 800 pager, but the best and established authors have simply given up on this medium. The only way to save technical books is, $200 for a book, increase royality % from 2% to 75%, color print with rich formatting ... OR ... ebook standardization with 50% royalty with a self-publishing model and much lower cost/entry point.

While I am on the topic of predictions, here are a few more I have for the year 2013:

  1. Someone would have created a good eBook reader by then.
  2. We will still be driving gasoline powered vehicles, gas will be even more expensive.
  3. Apple will not be an uber-loved company by then. Though it would have grown bigger, and it's protectionist policies will come under fire.
  4. Microsoft will be very very different in 5 years. It will still be around, and it will still be very major.
  5. Real skills, including IT, will continue to be valuable.
  6. A large percentage of you, reading my blog, will have a heartattack due to your unbalanced lifestyle. There will be a resurgence of better lifestyle in now more seasoned IT developers.
  7. My home PC will have a curved display - similar to 3 X 30" LCDs curved around me.
  8. Bluetooth ear buds for music.
  9. Our taxes will be much higher.
  10. The president will still suck.

Sound off but keep it civil:

Older comments..


On 3/3/2008 9:54:48 AM Becky Isserman said ..
First off blue tooth earbuds exist for music: http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss_gw/002-9508911-7807253?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=bluetooth+earbuds&x=0&y=0. Second off they just released this article on Slashdot today ironically: http://www.itwire.com/content/view/16931/1066/. If you notice that they talk about excessive internet use and heavy stress lives. I think they are describing a lot of your readers. I also noticed a study on Slashdot a while back that said Americans are obese because they eat while stressed out and so the pounds pack on quicker. There was another study done about French people where they eat about the same, but they tend to take things a little lighter and stress free. In America people need to worry less about everything and just take things with a grain of salt. Health is really just a state of mind like everything else.


As for the President...Nobody ever likes the ruling body unanimously...No ruling body is perfect, because they are only human.


It's early and my brain is fried from too much partying over the weekend, otherwise I would write more. Thanks for the facebook message. Have a good week. I need to figure out how to sleep and be productive today. You know it's bad when you can't make the first captcha work...


On 3/3/2008 10:40:07 AM Sahil Malik said ..
I know I've gained about 8 lbs in the past 3 months. Terrible!


I am going to start exercising the weekend after next (no time right now!).


On 3/3/2008 4:46:50 PM Steve Clements said ..
It always makes me smirk when Americans comment on expensive petrol(gas)...in the UK petrol is > $7.50 per gallon!!


I hope that technical books continue to be written, I agree with the need for improvements in the colour and presentation. WPF unleashed is a great example of this!

You have to find time to exercise dude! It's good for ya!

What is sharepoint vNext..2009??


On 3/3/2008 5:18:06 PM Sahil Malik said ..
Steve - Why is gas 7.59$ in Europe/UK?

Two reasons, govt. taxes and inflation.

One reason behind both of those reasons - The socialistic mindset of Europe.

So, we have a right to bitch @ $3/gal gasoline, because we don't live in socialistic europe with social security nets and unemployment insurance guarantees.

SM


On 3/3/2008 5:42:00 PM Kalpesh said ..
Sahil,

Your health is equally important to your readers :)


I need you to ShareTHEPoint ;)

Take care


Kalpesh


On 3/3/2008 5:54:50 PM Sahil Malik said ..
Thanks man - yeah I need to fix it.


On 3/3/2008 6:41:54 PM Becky Isserman said ..
I gained 8 lbs in the past two years, so what if I weigh like 130 lbs that's a big deal to me. Yeah I just ate a dinner of bagel dogs and jelly bellies...I was walking 3-4 miles a day in the summer, then winter roles around and all I do is sit inside and play Rockband. Do you own a Wii at all? If I had the motivation...Wii Sports is actually really good if you do it standing up and actually make the motions. It's fun and it helps you stay fit. It's much more motivating then joining a gym and dealing with the annoying sales people.


On 3/4/2008 5:38:31 AM Steve Clements said ..
Well your inflation is about the same as ours and Australia is considerably higher yet gas is still half the price of ours.


If only all the tax did go on our health service etc. it would be great. Not the case though - our health service is very poor, but support for the unemployed etc is good, too good. Often they get so much money from the state, working would be a pay cut!


On 3/4/2008 10:43:51 AM Sahil Malik said ..
Thats the whole point Steve. Anytime in history, or geography, whenever government has intervened to "protect the poor, and take away from the rich", it has only caused more harm to the society than good. So I guess when you pay 60 pounds for a steak dinner, after being taxed at almost 80% (count all your taxes), and add to it lower salaries than here, who do you have to blame for that? It's your taxes, nothing else!

Unfortunately, we see that happening here in America too. Both hillary and obama seem to be bent upon being a robin hood - steal from the rich and give to the poor. Good for politics, bad for the society as a whole.

SM


On 3/13/2008 8:53:31 AM Pranav said ..
"A large percentage of you, reading my blog, will have a heartattack due to your unbalanced lifestyle."

That statement scares me ... I am eating healthy starting today


On 3/13/2008 12:22:02 PM Anthony said ..
Hi Sahil,

Love your blogging, you mention 3 screens for you developer box :) I have that but.... 30" how about a picture on you blog, I'm always advising developers to at least slap on a second monitor. :)


On 3/13/2008 7:33:55 PM Sahil Malik said ..
Pranav - good ! One guy saved.


On 3/17/2008 5:22:40 PM Brian H. Madsen said ..
1 screen for development?? i...just...can't...do...that!!

at the place i was previously employed (before joining Change Corp) nobody were using 2, must less 3, monitors..and that was a dedicated ISV with 20+ developers. I wanted to use a minimum of 2 and that was a battle to get, but i did finally get it - but in the meantime i felt like somebody had chopped off my left hand.

i'm on two at work (would prefer three...buuuuuut, laptop doesn't handle two externals :(...) and 3 at home (ah, home sweet home!).


On 3/17/2008 7:24:35 PM Sahil Malik said ..
I think my point is, you wouldn't have to bother with multiple screens, because you'd rather prefer to have an immersive high density/rez display. Multiple screens is a stopgap to get us there. :)

SM